System Dynamics Modelling of Risk, Safety and Health Issues in Manufacturing Industry

Abstract
Manufacturing industry is a complex and dynamic process that synergizes stakeholders to enhance mass production of goods at a cheaper cost. This is associated with high risk and accident proneness with resultant higher operational cost. Integrating risk factors into safety planning and management modelling has been reported as difficult. This study, therefore, developed an integrated model that encapsulates accident risk causal factors and safety intervention strategy for effective and efficient utilization of safety programme resources for improved performance. A real life data of ten years (1997–2006 for pre-safety period and 2007–2016 for safety period) on accidents and health issues as well as annual expenditure were collected for the model application. Six accident risk causal factors (human, technical, organizational, systemic, economic and environmental) were identified. Four types of accident (fatal, serious, minor and trivial) and seven MSDs (hearing impairment, back, leg, chest and neck pain, headache and sight related problems) were identified.The developed models revealed that risk causal factors and health issues are critical to the survival of manufacturing industry in Nigeria. This will provide a veritable tool for enhancing profitability and reducing expenditure of safety programme Keywords - System Dynamics, Accident, MSDS, Cost of Accidents, Safety Programme