Paper Title
Risk, Rights, and Release: Legal and Political Implications of Risk Assessment Mechanisms in Early Carceral Release in the US and UK

Abstract
Risk assessment mechanisms are the linchpins of early carceral release decisions in the United States (“US”) and the United Kingdom (“UK”). Although each jurisdiction adopts a distinct approach—the US favoring actuarial tools such as the PATTERN algorithm under the First Step Act, and the UK employing a court-like model grounded in clinical judgment—recent reforms have triggered overlapping legal and practical concerns. This article undertakes a comparative analysis of these two frameworks, exposing the key institutional vulnerabilities of the systems. Keywords - Risk Assessment, Actuarial Tools, Clinical Judgement, Legal Implications, Institutional Vulnerability