Paper Title
Relationship Between Fertility And Some Endogenous Variables On Births Variation In North West Nigeria

Abstract
The paper tends to investigate the casual relationship between fertility and some selected endogenous variables that tend to affect births, such as Temperature and Rainfall. The study covers monthly data on these variables for the period for 1989-2012. The Unit root and Stationarity properties of the time series data were examined using the Dickey Fuller, Augmented Dickey Fuller and KPSS tests. Johansen Cointegration rank test, Error Correction Model are employed to find out the degree, direction and effect of the relationship, the long-run relationship between these variables. The findings from the Unit root and stationarity tests indicate that all the variables are integrated of order one I(1). Cointegration test provides evidence of the existence of long-run equilibrium between temperature and rainfall Temperature tends to exert positive impact in all cases. In some cases Inverse relationship was noticed in these variables. Thus, some percentages rise in temperature tend to have corresponding percentage increase in fertility. Keywords: Fertility, Endogenous Variables, Cointegration, Lon-run relationship