North Atlantic Storm Activity and Climate Change
Due to the potential for economic damages, capital losses and mortality, forecasting the likely frequency and intensity of North Atlantic hurricanes is high on the agenda of both Caribbean and North American stakeholders. Previous research in the area suggests that Sea Surface Temperature plays a critical role in the formation of hurricanes and thus their intensity but not in their numbers. Moreover, high SST’s are positively correlated with increasing carbon levels. Nevertheless, there is still some scepticism among climate researchers regarding the climate change-hurricane activity nexus. This study therefore attempts to use econometric modelling techniques to address this on-going debate in the area.
Index terms - Storms; hurricanes; climate change; forecasting.