Predicting Corporate Financial Distress: Evidence from Taiwan
In Taiwan, development of a bankruptcy classification model for any one industry is difficult because of the small number of bankrupt companies per sector from it. This study proposes an approach that combines financial ratio analysis and logistic-regression analysis with a proposed formula for data transformation to estimate the probability of financial failure for public corporations. The result of relatively smaller differences in the average Type I error, Type II error, and correct rates of our financial distress forecasting model suggests that the proposed estimation method is more effective for decoupling the variability of time. The test result of the hypothesis based on the bootstrap resampling technique with a resample of size 10,000 suggests further suggests that the models created with the proposed estimation method are able to improve the accuracy of financial distress forecasting. Research implications are also discussed.
Index Terms - Financial distress, Bankruptcy, Failure, Prediction, Taiwan